Decreasing construction starts in three months to January 2024 reflect 'protracted period of depression'



Underlying project-starts experienced a downturn during the three months to January, plummeting 13% when seasonally adjusted, with the value of work starting on-site nose-diving by 36% compared to last year, reveals new data from Glenigan.


This included residential construction which, having rallied in the previous edition of the index, weakened 34% on the year before.

All other vertical performance was weak, with non-residential project-starts finishing 37% lower than the same period last year.

This downhill trajectory is unsurprising given persistently high interest rates and intense economic uncertainty, keeping public and private investors cautious about committing to new projects.

Private housing decreased 18% against the preceding three months, with starts 36% weaker than 2023 levels.

Social housing performed poorly on both counts, with work starting on-site falling 9% against the previous three months, standing 28% down on the previous year.

The value of starts across non-residential sectors fell 12% during the three months to January, finishing 37% lower than 2023 figures.

All verticals experienced a decline against last year.

Industrial project-start performance was especially poor, with project-starts weakening 11% during the three months to the end of January to stand 45% lower than a year ago.

Offices also fared poorly, with the value of project-starts falling back 19% against the preceding three months and 39% against the previous year.

It was a similar story for education, which saw the value of underlying project-starts fall back 17% against the preceding three months to stand 37% down on a year ago.

Retail project-starts also slipped back abruptly, declining 18% against the preceding three months to stand 27% down on the year before.

Health, community and amenity also decreased 10% and 14% against the preceding three months, to stand 33% and 11% down on the previous year, respectively.

Hotel and leisure starts dropped by 45% compared with last year but increased a modest 3% on the preceding three-month period.

Civils work starting on-site dropped 4% against the preceding three months to stand 39% down on a year ago.

Infrastructure starts dropped 38% on the previous year’s figures, despite increasing 3% on the preceding three months.

Civils general decline was also influenced by utilities activity, which declined 13% against the preceding three month-period, finishing 41% down on 2023.

Commenting on the data, Glenigan’s economic director, Allan Wilen, said: “The February Index shows project-start performance remaining frustratingly slow across the sector, amid eye-watering economic conditions.

“This protracted period of depression is evident in sharp declines across the private residential, industrial, and commercial sectors.

“On a more positive note, civil engineering starts remain slightly more stable, posting a modest decline against the preceding three months.

“However, they remain sharply lower than this time last year.”



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